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COVID-19 recovery

Tell us a bit about your background. How did you end up in London?

I have spent a great deal of my working life in food and hospitality. Cooking and baking have always been part of my life and from a very young age I was in the kitchen getting involved. As with many people who work in the hospitality business I am passionate about feeding people great food and creating experiences and memories through food and drink. I owned my first food business in Wellington when I was 21 years old which was a delicatessen and catering company. We made everything in the store from pate to bread. I decided to sell that business to come over to the UK and arrived here in 1997. With a couple of friends from NZ  and chef Peter Gordon we created Gourmet Burger Kitchen which went pretty well and grew in to a large chain of restaurants. Later on I opened Kopapa in London with Peter & Michael McGrath. 

What is the story behind Crosstown Doughnuts?

Like most Kiwis I am big fan of a great quality coffee. I had wanted to do something with coffee when I was approached by a young Australian guy called JP Then. He was looking to do something different in the coffee space in London. I didn’t want our food to be the same as what everyone else was doing and so we settled on the idea we would do artisan doughnuts with our coffee. We now have 12 shops and sell them in Harrods, Whole Foods and deliver them fresh all over the UK everyday.  JP and I are huge fans of online ordering and we have created a software company called Slerp which is the platform base for our online business at Crosstown. 

Covid-19 saw many businesses, especially in hospitality, have to pivot their offerings. Can you talk a bit to what you and the team at Crosstown have done?

Crosstown has been extremely lucky that we have managed keep our business intact during the pandemic. London has been extremely badly hit. As the first lockdown approached we could see panic buying starting at supermarkets. Other people in the hospitality trade were also seeing their businesses disappear in front of their face. So I contacted the guy who supplied all our milk and a friend of mine who had a large bakery and created the Crosstown Collective. The demand  just exploded and for the next 3 months we delivered fruit & veg, milk bread and doughnuts. Our customers were incredible and our staff were even more amazing. We had the technology, the space and the logistics to serve hundreds of people across London on a daily basis. 

What were your motivations behind starting ‘Operation Doughnation’?

A couple of years ago I floated the idea to JP about this program to support emergency services. It came to mind after a terrorist event here in London. When the pandemic started the whole country could see the pressure that the NHS and emergency services were under. We could see from the way that our customers were buying that our doughnuts were giving them a break from this really bad situation our country was in. So as is so often the case, JP and our team was able to pull the technology together and get the logistics organised to get food parcels and doughnuts to these people in need. The UK are such a generous nation and we were able to create a channel to enable them to give these amazing NHS staff a moment away from the madness. 

On a personal level, as someone who is staying in the UK, what are you most hopeful for in 2021?

On a personal level I want to see my children get back to school! Home schooling is one of the hardest things we have ever done. Children have zero understanding of production efficiency. The main thing for us to do is to navigate the next 12 months and ensure that having got this far we don’t fall on the home straight. I have been very proud to keep our teams at Crosstown and Slerp all working and even growing which is testament to the great people we have working at both companies. As I look around the hospitality trade in London it has just been destroyed and so many people have lost great businesses through absolutely no fault of their own. We are some of the lucky ones. 

How has running a business changed for you over the past 12 months?

Crosstown is now a better business than it was. A crisis forces you to focus like never before. 50% of our business is now online. We have added two new lines in cookies and ice cream at Crosstown. Both are going great. We also now offer National Delivery 5 days a week and that has opened up huge opportunities to us.  At Slerp we completed a funding round and have now laid the ground for that business to keep growing in to 2021 and beyond. 

What’s next for Crosstown?

Crosstown will continue to innovate with new products which is really exciting. We have partnered with a couple of large corporations that approached us to develop new lines with them which is exciting. And it is highly likely that Crosstown will open its first overseas territory in late 2021 or early 2022. So some exciting things happening. 

CONTRIBUTOR

Adam Wills

Co-founder

Crosstown Doughnuts

World Class New Zealander

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For people in New Zealand who have invested in residential property with a mortgage, March 23 delivered something of a shock. Faced with house prices on average soaring a ridiculous 25% since May and by 5.2% in just February, the government has been coming under more and more pressure to do something about the housing situation in New Zealand.

It looks like they may have been hoping that they could encourage the Reserve Bank to take moves to restrain house price rises. But as the Reserve Bank Governor politely pointed out, it is not the job of the Reserve Bank to target a particular pace of house price gain.

Instead the RB aims for inflation near 2%, full employment, the avoidance of instability in the economy, interest rates, and the exchange rate, and financial stability. The financial stability goal mainly involves intense monitoring of banks, setting capital and liquidity levels, and limiting high risk lending through a variety of means.

From around September last year it looks like the banks were actually lobbying the RB behind closed doors to bring back minimum deposit requirements for home loans earlier than their planned date of May 1. Banks were seeing extremely strong growth in credit demand from investors and were starting to reinstate the Loan to Value Ratio rules which the RB stripped away for a year as one of their responses to the Covid-19 shock. 

The RB has brought those rules back and investors now require a 40% deposit compared with 30% before the nationwide lockdown from March last year. As it is, with the banks having already brought their own rules back early, it is near impossible to look at the lending data in New Zealand and conclude that banks have been engaging in risky practices.

That situation, plus the fact that the Reserve Bank wants as much stimulus as possible to offset the Covid effects, means the Finance Minister got nowhere in his request for further assistance. So, he initiated his own attempt to restrict credit flows to investors by removing the ability of investors to deduct interest costs when calculating their taxable profit from a residential property investment.

For new purchases the rule applies immediately. For existing landlords it will be brought in over four years. The change will increase property holding costs for an average investor by about $5,000 and this has caused outrage amongst property investors because no other business is denied the ability to deduct a legitimate cost.

There have been thousands of threats to sell property and raise rents aggressively, and while there is a strong spitting of the dummy element in play, there will nonetheless be a reduction in rental property supply and increase in rents. By how much however is anyone’s guess and there is one interesting aspect of the policy change. It does not apply to new builds.

That is, an investor who buys a new property retains deductibility of interest expenses. Plus the brightline test for assessing capital gains tax stays at five years whereas it has been extended to ten years for holders and buyers of existing property.

Already in my three main surveys of mortgage brokers, real estate agents, and Tony’s View readers generally, I can see evidence of investors pulling back from the market. First home buyers have also taken a step back for the moment though to a far lesser degree.

Will the tax changes cause house prices to fall? I have no problem seeing falls for some of the next six or so months given the extreme nature of recent house price rises. But the underlying trend is still likely to remain one of house prices rising long-term, though at a rate eventually averaging closer to 5% or less rather than the average 6.8% per annum gain which has been seen in NZ since 1992. 

If you want much more information on the NZ economy and housing market in particular you can sign up for my free Tony’s View weekly at www.tonyalexander.nz

CONTRIBUTOR

Tony Alexander

Economics Speaker

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Just one year later, the Project Crimson Trust was born. The community-based project was created by the Northland Department of Conservation, supported by New Zealand Forest Products (now Carter Holt Harvey) and focused solely on pōhutukawa. In 1996 Project Crimson expanded to include rātā, pōhutukawa’s endangered cousin. Today, through its flagship programme Trees That Count, Project Crimson helps Kiwis plant millions more native trees, of all species, as a way to fight climate change, strengthen ecosystems and grow healthier communities everywhere.

On Earth Day 2021, we reflect on the success of Project Crimson in preserving pōhutukawa and rātā and its evolution to leading fundraising for Trees That Count. Community support has gone from strength to strength, and has progressed from local to global. Trees planted 30 years ago now support their own thriving ecosystems and stamp their mark on New Zealand’s biodiversity.

Project Crimson demonstrates that the conservation actions you take today, no matter how small, have a meaningful, positive impact on our future.  

Debbie Teale, Project Crimson Trust Executive Director, 1998 – 2003

How did you get involved in Project Crimson? 

I was Manager Communications for Carter Holt Harvey (CHH) with partnerships and sponsorships sitting within my portfolio of work. As part of this I was a trustee of Project Crimson and not only loved the vision and purpose of the work, but I could see so much potential for scaling the work and therefore its impact. It was such a beautiful model with a cause that people believed in, a strong partnership with the Department of Conservation (DoC) and a large corporate – both of which could provide people resources and local relationships around all of New Zealand.

In 1998 when I was going to leave Carter Holt Harvey to have my daughter I was asked by the then Chairman if I would be interested in becoming the first dedicated and paid Executive Director. I jumped at the opportunity and spent the next five years running the trust from my home. It was, and still is, the best job I have ever had.

When you joined, what was your vision for Project Crimson?

What I was really keen to do was strengthen the partnership and the commitment of CHH to the brand and, really importantly, to grow its financial support. There are so many non-profits in New Zealand that struggle with ongoing committed funding so they can lay down plans beyond 12 months. We had commitment but I was sure we could increase the funding and therefore go on to do more work. One of the first things I did was approach Colenso BBDO (as it was called at the time), CHH’s advertising agency, and asked them to take the trust on as a pro bono client.

Photo credit: Lara Macgregor

We started out by relooking at the brand and then went on to roll out a range of marketing and PR activities such as a nation-wide bill-board campaign. We also approached other partners to CHH and Colenso BBDO to help us with supplies for events such as the Ellerslie Flower Show, with the supply of Holden Rodeo utes for travelling around the country for planting events. We were able to garner heaps more support and ultimately do more work. We also looked for ways to add on activities that would mean that Kiwis would get to engage with the trees in their natural environment, and hopefully get in behind the cause; activities like the Crimson Trails which are still on the website today. 

Ramping up support and finding ways that CHH would commit more and more funding each year meant we could deliver more and have more impact. The more funding we received, the more we could in turn also distribute to community groups in our annual funding round. I was strategically trying to lock CHH and its own brand into staying in for the long haul. 

Pōhutukawa were facing extinction when Project Crimson was launched. The task ahead must have felt overwhelming. How did you prioritise what to work on first?

Ted Wilson and Debbie Teale

I was not there at the very start – l was lucky that there was an incredible volunteer coordinator Ted Wilson (that title undersells what he did) who had worked with the DoC and CHH teams all around the country. He had already ensured we had seed supply, nurseries raising stock, scientists leading and guiding what we needed to do, schools and community groups doing pest control and plantings. It was well established; I just came along and applied my communications and stakeholder engagement background along with my network within CHH to get more money and do more. It was so much fun and so rewarding working with awesome people that I never had trouble seeing what we needed to do next. It was a job that took over my life and I was able to take my daughter to everything, which was a bonus. Working with Ted Wilson was a bonus also. We had a ten-year celebration at the Auckland Museum and then Prime Minister Helen Clark acknowledged Ted and what he had achieved.

Project Crimson won the hearts and minds of New Zealanders. How did the project team get such strong community involvement?

We were lucky that we had two partnering organisations with established operations all around the country. So we could easily work in local communities on plantings and pest control initiatives which was vital to the Trust’s success. They also gathered seed for us that we then grew in nurseries around the country and returned to their origins. Without the volunteers on the ground this work would not have succeeded. We also had a fantastic team of trustees who worked tirelessly to help the cause. It is incredible to see that Joris De Bres and Ruud Kleinpaste are still with Project Crimson today!

What do you see as the biggest hurdle today for New Zealand’s biodiversity?

Sadly, the biggest hurdles to me are around changing land use and human activity. We are destroying habitats in rural and urban areas, and in marine environments. 

Adele Fitzpatrick, current Project Crimson Trust CEO

Project Crimson has evolved from a single-species charity in the 90s to now helping hundreds of planting groups each year with free trees. Can you tell us the story behind this evolution?

Like any good charity should do, we’d effectively done ourselves out of a job by turning around the health of pōhutukawa and rātā (until Myrtle Rust came along of course!). We got to the point where we had to ask the question, “are we done?” but the Trustees unanimously agreed that with biodiversity continuing to decline, there was still an important role for Project Crimson to do. In 2016, with support from The Tindall Foundation, we started Trees That Count which was initially focused on building a movement of all native tree planting activity in New Zealand through its live tree count. But we knew that in order to really help shift the dial we needed to increase generosity for native tree plantings. In 2018 we launched the Trees That Count marketplace: it enables anyone to gift or donate native trees which are matched to planters around the country who apply to us for free native trees to scale their amazing mahi. 

Last year you conducted research on the behaviours that drive a community to take positive action for the environment. What were the standout learnings from that research? 

Photo credit: Adrienne Miller

What it means to be a New Zealander
New Zealand’s native trees are viewed as an integral and special part of what it means to be a New Zealander. People see native trees as a vital component of our collective identity, and they consider our native trees to be a major example of our national heritage, similar to the role played by prominent buildings and monuments. And all this without even mentioning how significant our native rākau are in Māoritanga.

Emotional and geographical significance

When asked to recall a favourite native tree, interviewees would often tell a story of its location and reflect on an emotional connection that encompasses it, such as: ‘Christmas in the Coromandel with the pōhutukawa down by the ocean’, or ‘walking with the family and dogs under the canopy of kauri in the Waitākere Ranges’.

How do you measure the work that you do? What does success look like?

The key measures of success for me are the live data feeds on the front page of our website—we all watch them climb and celebrate each milestone together. We recently passed 700,000 trees funded: while one tree may not seem like much, together they have upscaled over 700 planting projects across Aotearoa. We are only limited by the funding we receive, and are certain that success will mean this number continues to grow exponentially every year. 

Our long term goal is to see the funding and gifting of trees as the Kiwi thing to do—to celebrate a wedding, graduation or someone’s life, or to honour a memory or a place. Of course, this is not just limited to Kiwis at home, and we would also hope that all kinds of people around the world would be moved to give to NZ’s beautiful ngahere.

Native tree planting forms one critical part of the goal of greater biodiversity. Predator control is another. How does Project Crimson work alongside predator control organisations?

Photo credit: Neil Hutton, DOC

We are complementary organisations and work together to support each other’s work. New Zealand has a big pest problem and we know there’s no point in planting a native tree if an animal is going to eat it that night. Ongoing predator control is incredibly important to our native trees, and the majority of planting groups we support implement significant pest control programmes to match their planting efforts.

What are you most proud of when you reflect on the work of Project Crimson?

I’m proud of many things that we’ve achieved in a very short space of time. I love hearing about the stories of the planters we’ve helped to support: of how they’re seeing more birds or that whitebait has reappeared, and kids telling us how proud they are of their school now that it has an outdoor learning area that we helped to plant. I’m also really proud of the support we have and how often I’m told by someone that they love what we’re doing. I’m extremely proud of the care my team put into their work—it definitely shows in the way they go about things and in the output. I’m really proud of how Kiwis have embraced the concept of funding native trees for someone else to plant on their behalf—from large corporates donating tens of thousands of trees as part of their sustainability strategy, to grandparents gifting trees to their mokopuna.

If you could challenge readers to take one action as a result of reading this story, what would it be?

Consider gifting or donating a native tree! For Kiwis living offshore, the act of gifting a tree to be planted back home is such an easy way to get involved (and much faster than waiting to ship something home at the moment!). For just $10 your recipient gets emailed a beautiful gift certificate with a personalised message from you, and the tree gets planted on your behalf by one of our amazing planters. You can pick a region you’d like the tree to be planted in and it’s the perfect way to tell someone you think they’re amazing, you’re missing them or celebrate an occasion you can’t get home for.

Pōhutukawa nostalgia

Who remembers this decade-old Telecom Keep in Touch ad?

Get involved

No matter where you are, you can get involved in supporting biodiversity by gifting or donating a native tree through Trees That Count. Native trees you fund will be matched to a planting project and you’ll be kept up to date with where your tree will be planted.

CONTRIBUTOR

The Project Crimson Trust

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Hannah Churchill, founder, hcreates

Tell us a little bit about yourself and your business? 

I grew up in Dunedin and moved to Wellington to complete a degree in Architecture at Victoria University. After graduating and working for a few years in Wellington, I had the opportunity to move to Shanghai. While there I helped a group of friends design their first bar which led to some more restaurants and hcreates was born.  It’s been a busy ten years or so designing and completing over a 100 restaurants and bars, workspaces, gyms and retail spaces. I have been fortunate to be included in the Architectural Digest top 100 Designers in China since 2017.

What was 2020 like for H Creates? I imagine a design studio would have been affected in different ways than other companies. 

The weeks in February after Chinese New Year are our most active time of the year, as clients begin new projects they hope to open by summer. The situation evolved rapidly at our most important time of the year. Almost every project in our pipeline vanished, all new projects went on hold, and leases were extended as people just tried keep their doors open let alone consider new ones.  

Given the challenge what did you did you do?

We realised there was no easy way out, and there were a mountain of factors completely out of our control. We made a conscious decision to just focus on what we could do. Initially, we got to spend a lot of time on internal tidy-up and planning. By May, Shanghai started to feel slightly more familiar again. So, we just got out there and had coffees with anyone and everyone to chat about our business. It was an anxious 4-5 months as we kept paying bills and worked towards rebuilding our pipeline.  

Tell us about your most memorable experience in 2020? Any particular keywords or phrases that come to mind?

Whilst we were back in NZ over CNY (pre-lockdown), we caught up with an artist friend Anna Leyland whom we had collaborated on a Shanghai project before. When she was telling us all the plans she had over the next few months, she paused and said, “you know, you just got to keep hustling”. When we got back to China and things were looking pretty grim, we remembered that conversation and “keep hustling” kind of developed into a mindset for us that we were going to need to do be prepared to think and do things differently to make it through the year. 

Finally, in the last quarter of the year, a coffee catch-up turned into an opportunity to work with an international entertainment company that is launching their brand in China. We are looking forward to seeing this project open its doors in 2021.

Do you see any new opportunities or positives for the interior design industry in 2021?

China is still a place of rapid change so generally there is a lot going on. We are already seeing a promising pattern in 2021. This is due to three main things, the delayed projects restarting, travel restrictions leading to increased domestic spending in hospitality and retail. Slower recovery in other global markets encouraging brands to speed up their China projects.

Andy Huang, owner, BLEND

Tell us a little bit about yourself and your business?

My name is Andy, I was born and raised in Shenzhen and went to New Zealand for my undergraduate studies in 2000. After I graduated, I started working for ASB bank and ended up spending ten amazing years in Auckland before I made a move to London, where I stayed until 2015. I decided to move back to Shenzhen to be closer to my parents, and I started my coffee business with my two business partners in 2016.

My business is an independent cafe brand named BLEND. Currently, BLEND has three branches in Shenzhen, and we were one of the very first cafes in Shenzhen to serve specialty coffees and provide all-day brunch daily.

What was 2020 like for Cafe Blend? I heard that you even opened up a new store during the lockdown period – which would seem like a bold move to the rest of us.

It was definitely a difficult start of the year for 2020. We were basically shut for the month of February, and then allowed to open only for takeaway and delivery at the beginning of March. It was only towards the end of March when we could finally operate with full service. Luckily, we saw business pick up fairly quickly. By May, we were pretty much back to our normal level of sales, something which we know was quite unusual in the food and beverage industry at that time.
Opening a third cafe in 2020 had always been in our plans, but we didn’t dream to be able to continue do it when the pandemic broke out. We watched our business and the market very closely. In May, when we saw that sales numbers were getting back to normal and, more importantly, the pandemic seemed to be getting under control in China, we made the decision to carry on with our plans and start looking for the right location for the third cafe. We acted fast — there were quite a few businesses closing down around that time, so we thought it might be in our favour to negotiate a rental deal. We managed to seal the deal for a site in Nanshan we really liked in June, and from there we were able to open our cafe in August!

Can you share with us some of the key strategies you used to increase customer orders and expand your business at a time like last year?

Firstly, I think we have always known what we want to achieve for the business and we stick to our plans all the way. BLEND was created to show people in Shenzhen what a cafe is like in New Zealand. We want to provide not only good coffee but also amazing all-day brunch dishes. Since we started the business in 2016, we made all of our business decisions with this goal in our minds. 

Secondly, we worked very hard to really understand our business, inside-out and outside- in. In the past few years we have improved so much in every aspect of our business, including products, customer service, the management system, training, etc. We understand what our customers like about BLEND and we never stop enhancing that experience, and more importantly, we built a very strong customer relationship with our clients. And we believe that’s how we were able to recover so quickly from the initial couple of months of the pandemic.

Thirdly, we have never stopped building a better team and a stronger brand. The competition in China is intense and things can happen at a much faster pace than elsewhere. That’s means if we stop thinking about what we can do next or planning ahead, we could soon fall behind and lose our place in the market. So it is important to build a company culture in which everyone has a drive for continuous improvement, and in which everyone see such changes and improvements in a very positive way.

Tell us about your most memorable experience in 2020? Any particular keywords or phrases that come to mind?

It was definitely when we were first allowed to reopen during the early stages of the pandemic. Customers even from far parts of the city ordered their food online and came to the cafe to collect it and support us. Some regulars visited, but because we had to maintain social distancing, we could only just wave our hands to say “hi”, or show a hug or kiss though the air, or sometimes we just stood there and smiled at each other. In those moments, we realised how much we miss the personal contact and interactions we have in normal times. Keywords and phrases like, “stay healthy” and “don’t take everything for granted”.

Do you see any new opportunities or positives for the specialty coffee industry in 2021?

I do think the specialty coffee industry will continue to grow not only in China but also around the world. The coffee drinking population is growing dramatically in China and that offers great opportunities. While coffee has an established place in people’s day-to- day life in the West, customers here in China have their own understanding about coffee with further potential to develop. And the varied understanding and knowledge about coffee means there are a lot of hidden opportunities to find and explore.

Augusta Xu-Holland, Actress

Tell us a little bit about your background and your experiences in China?

I was born in Auckland but my father is originally from Beijing so I had a bicultural upbringing. I went to Otumoetai College in Tauranga and then went on to complete a BSc in Biology and BA in Asian studies at Vic Uni in Wellington. After finishing university, OE was the next step, naturally and I made what was in retrospect the life-changing decision to travel a bit around China and see what was happening in this big country of my father’s ancestors. It turns out a lot was happening in China.

I immediately started working in public relations and also in bioenergy, and then was given a chance to move into acting. There was strong growth in the China film industry around that time in 2015 and, for some reason, I fitted right in, scoring my first role (romantic) as a nurse in a Hollywood China co-production. Since that first opening, I have played a wide range of novel characters including a teenage gang leader on the border between Russia and China, a sci-fi werewolf, a Michelin Star restaurant owner and a Malaysian Paris Hilton…

What was 2020 like for you? Did the pandemic cause any significant changes to your personal and professional life?

Needless to say it’s been hard to be away from friends and family, knowing that its not easy to get home. I came back to China right before borders were closed to foreigners and there was a time of uncertainty; everything was on hold while everyone tried to work out what was going to happen. The entertainment industry has somewhat rebounded and I was lucky to get

some good film work in a tv series towards the end of the year. It almost felt like normal conditions, just some nucleic acid tests and the crew were wearing masks.

Can you share with us one of your most memorable moments or achievements from 2020?

It would have to be the relief of the The Eight Hundred coming out, and my being in Beijing to be part of the excitement. Fortunately COVID was under control in China, so people could enjoy it on the cinema big screen. The movie raked in about 360 million USD in box office revenue so, interestingly, it was actually the top grossing film in the world for 2020, -which may be a little like  ‘low hanging fruit’,  I know, but we have to celebrate what we can! It was especially nice to have friends and family watch it back home in New Zealand cinemas too.

Any plans or aspirations for 2021?

I’ve been fortunate already to spend all of January working in Sanya, Hainan, shooting a TV series, with scene locations across various luxury resorts, by and even on the ocean as well as  in very iconic Hainan coconut groves, so I have had my luck for the year already in a way. But, of course, like others, I really hope that the worldwide pandemic is able to be finally got under control, so China’s and the world’s film industry can flourish, and the great directing, acting and technical talent that I have appreciated working with in China so much, get to continue to use their wonderful skills. And hopefully we will also see some more filmmaking ventures between China and New Zealand.

In the meantime, with this change of pace,  I have got to know other cities and regions of  China better.  For example, I’ve started a business with a friend which is based between Jinan in Shandong and Melbourne and I have also become more familiar with the Hainan provincial  government business policies, and can see opportunities there for the future.

Gary Bradshaw, the Head of School for 3e International School (Beijing)

TELL US A LITTLE BIT ABOUT YOUR BACKGROUND AND YOUR EXPERIENCES IN CHINA?

I came to China back in January 2007 for a classroom teaching role at a small international school in Wuxi, Jiangsu. I am now in my 15th year in China and can say I have lived here much longer than I have lived anywhere else in my life. My childhood was spent as an ‘expat’, living in Zambia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, with periods of time in the UK, Australia and also in New Zealand. 

Though born just outside Liverpool in the UK, our family moved to Zambia when I was 2 years old. My father worked as a mechanic in the copper belt mining area and wanted to provide opportunities for the family. From Zambia we moved to Indonesia, then to Australia and then to the island of Bougainville in Papua New Guinea as a teenager. My senior schooling at this time was by correspondence as there were no international schools. 

Image

I finished my schooling at a boarding school in Nelson and remained there for a few years and became a New Zealand citizen. Over the years my career has taken a couple of turns as I moved from nursing to teaching and then to school leadership. It took me to the UK, Australia, back to New Zealand,  Singapore, South Korea and finally here to China. Teaching and leadership roles in Wuxi, Chengdu and Beijing have left me feeling very comfortable and contented here in China, but I also know that at some stage I will return home to live in Wellington. 

WHAT WAS 2020 LIKE FOR YOU? DID THE PANDEMIC CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO YOUR PERSONAL AND PROFESSIONAL LIFE?

2020 was without a doubt one of my most challenging years professionally. At the time of the outbreak, my wife and I were enjoying Chinese New Year in Wellington. As news started to come in, with the very real prospect of school closure beyond the spring festival holiday, I had little choice but to come back. While other colleagues and friends in Beijing and China were doing all they could to get out of the country, I was desperate to get back in. I knew China was most probably the safest place to be and the school, families and teachers needed me back in Beijing. 

It was a challenging year. Exacerbated by a series of unknowns and a school community demanding answers to questions we simply didn’t have answers to. This was compounded by governmental demands of data, information and time. For weeks on end I was unable to sleep, but little by little things became clearer, some questions answered and the reality of what was happening kicked in. A family health scare over in Australia in May had me worried that if something went wrong I would be unable to travel and be available if needed. I think it is the helplessness that is the most challenging. Not having the ability or the power to do or manage what you need to in a time of crisis can be debilitating. 

We are not out of the woods yet in terms of this pandemic, but I am certainly better equipped now to deal with what comes my way.

CAN YOU SHARE WITH US ONE OF YOUR MOST MEMORABLE MOMENTS OR ACHIEVEMENTS FROM 2020?

Without a doubt getting our school back up and running and having children fill corridors and classrooms once again is one of the most memorable things from 2020. It was such a big break for children and families and so hard on them as they attempted to home school their children while juggling work and family commitments. We had amazing support from the best of our families. 

There was so much appreciation and understanding about what were we’re trying to do, both with our home learning and with reopening. The teachers worked very hard throughout school closure and as a school we did all we could to support and nurture them. We knew we would be unable to please everyone along the way and we did lose some families. 

All schools struggled, particularly private ones and some are still struggling. Our enrollment took a bit of a dive when the new year started. Uncertainty, pandemic restrictions and processes, along with continued fear kept some families away, but we are so happy we remain open and continue to be a viable learning option for families. 

ANY PLANS OR ASPIRATIONS FOR 2021?

2021 is a new year and I am so excited to be able to welcome my first child, born just before Chinese New Year. There is little doubt my 2021 will be dedicated to ensuring that he is cared for,  nurtured and gets all the love he deserves. On the professional front, I am looking forward to getting the school operating normally again. Many things have fallen by the wayside and opportunities for our school and professional communities to connect together in meaningful ways once again will be very welcome. 

HAS YOUR COMMUNITY COME TOGETHER DURING THE PANDEMIC? WHAT ARE SOME EXAMPLES OF THIS?

Given the physical distance between myself and my wider family, technology has always played a part in how we have keep in touch. Never more so than during the pandemic. WeChat calling and messaging has been our go-to method for a couple of years and has helped us to be available for each other regardless of the time differences. 

Reading and writing poetry has always been a big part of my life and being so far away has meant I had lost touch with what’s been going on. Many NZ poetry groups moved to online meetings and readings during the lockdown, so this enabled me to join and reconnect with the poetry world. I am now also a committee member and secretary for the New Zealand Poetry Society (NZPS), which allows me to keep up to date on poetry, writing and the arts scene back home. 

WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE HAPPENING IN CHINA’S KIWI COMMUNITY IN 2021?

There are loads of Kiwis all over China. Finding ways to connect them together and to connect them with home is so valuable. In reality many, like myself, will return to NZ at some stage and I know that fitting back in and building community will not be easy. 

Expatriate life here in China is a cushy one. Returning home will be a challenge for us all and finding ways to reconnect through art, stories, literature, poetry, culture and sport while we are here would be so beneficial. 

Some things I would love to see here include: 

  • The All Blacks in China
  • a New Zealand book or literature festival
  • Arts or Cultural festivals
  • visiting artists in collaboration with Chinese artists
  • more educational connections and opportunities that reflect both Chinese and New Zealand similarities & perspectives

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One of the key drivers of the ups and downs in New Zealand’s economy is not just the sometimes highly emotive toing and froing of the housing market, but the more fundamental cyclical changes in primary export prices. As a rule, when our export prices rise the economy’s growth rate accelerates from out of the regions into the cities. Wages growth picks up, retail sales strengthen, housing eventually benefits, migration can improve, and after a while interest rates go up along with the exchange rate – which has probably already risen anyway. 

As it turns out, with the outlook for world growth lifting sharply in recent weeks, and with China displaying high demand for New Zealand’s “soft” commodities (as opposed to Australia’s “hard” commodities like coal), some of our export prices have lifted firmly. 

The important one is dairying. At the most recent fortnightly Global Dairy Trade auction the average prices measure jumped by 15% after rising 23% cumulatively from previous auctions starting in November. Prices are now 39% up from a year earlier and at their highest level in seven years.

As a result, Fonterra have lifted their forecast for this season’s payout, and this will inject many hundreds of millions of dollars into the New Zealand economy. But here is where it gets interesting. The higher payouts don’t start right away for dairy farmers. They rise with a lag. Just as the farmers will be receiving far better cash flows, so too will tourism sector operators from early next year probably be seeing a potentially strong lift in cash receipts.

At the same time, we are likely to see net migration inflows lift anew, especially as Kiwis still overseas wanting to get back come flooding in. Plus, there will be growth-supporting rises in house construction, local and central government infrastructure spending, and stronger business capital spending generally which will likely be assisted by banks becoming more willing to lend to businesses.

But along with these new sources of growth there will be some new restraints. One is highly likely to be a higher NZD pushing towards US 80 cents – because that is what tends to happen when our export prices rise. 

In addition, very soon we are likely to see bank fixed mortgage interest rates rising in response to the now well-known rises in wholesale medium- to long-term funding costs around the world – in spite of central bank promises to keep floating rate costs low.

Very few banks outside of maybe the United States fund their fixed rate lending with floating rate borrowing. This process of “riding the curve” can be very dangerous and is actively avoided by banks in New Zealand especially.

There will also be some restraint on NZ’s growth gains from Kiwis diverting their $10bn per annum worth of foreign travel spending back towards businesses offshore rather than retailers of spas and motorcycles in New Zealand.

There will also be some restraint from worsening shortages of labour along with shortages of readily developable land around all the country (except Auckland where the Unitary Plan makes intensification quite easy). 

Overall, while the improving prospects for growth probably won’t be enough to convince the Reserve Bank that it should raise its official cash rate from 0.25% this year, it could be a very different story for 2022. This is especially so because of one very important thing which many people probably still haven’t cottoned on to.

A year ago, central bankers made the explicit decision to target the risk of keeping interest rates too low for too long in order to guarantee economic recovery post-pandemic. They did this knowing they can easily catch up on fighting inflationary pressures when they appear by quickly raising interest rates. That is what lies in prospect for the period 2022-24 at varying speeds around the world. As that happens, we should expect some fairly high volatility in exchange rates – with an upward bias for the NZD likely this year and next given the chances that our monetary policy tightening comes before moves in other countries. 

If you want much more information on the NZ economy and housing market in particular you can sign up for my free Tony’s View weekly at www.tonyalexander.nz

CONTRIBUTOR

Tony Alexander

Economics Speaker

Kea member

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Can you talk a bit to your professional background and your current work at Auckland Unlimited and Economic Development New Zealand?

I’m General Manager Economic Development at Auckland Unlimited, the region’s cultural and economic development agency. We deliver a co-ordinated, region-wide programme to maximise cultural, social and economic benefits for Aucklanders and visitors, and support our local businesses to thrive.

Before Covid-19, my role at Auckland Unlimited centred on leading international business and investment attraction, innovation, business growth, and sector and skills development. Now, it’s all the above, with a focus on the region’s economic recovery from the pandemic and how we can collectively support our communities, businesses, and industries in a Covid-19 world.

Since mid-2019 I’ve been chair of the national professional body, Economic Development New Zealand (EDNZ). I work to support the growth and reach of ENDZ as it strives to empower and enable our members and to be a strong advocate for economic development across all our regions to government.

By way of background, I was born in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, raised and educated in the Waikato, and have worked in Auckland, Wellington and overseas. My career has been varied, across local and central government, trade and investment, place brand, technology and innovation, the publishing and screen sectors, city-to-city links, and the non-profit sector.

Why is collaboration between the regions so important for overall national economic growth? 

In a small country such as New Zealand, it’s important we combine our talents because when the regions do well, the entire nation does well. 

Our regions are diverse in their attributes, with the potential to attract international investment, provide employment opportunities and raise shared prosperity – all indicators of economic growth.

In Auckland, we’re known for our large contribution to New Zealand’s GDP (nearly 40%). Our contribution to GST on production, import duties and other taxes was $9.3 billion alone for 2018, approximately 4.5 times greater than any other region.

This contribution to the nation’s economy has been brought into stark relief since the pandemic arrived on our shores, with the impacts of Auckland’s regional lockdowns felt across the country – particularly in domestic tourism, cultural and sporting events.

Collaboration across the regions has always been important for national economic growth and is now increasingly important as we navigate uncertain times. Auckland Unlimited collaborates with public and private sector partners across New Zealand to bring scale and impact to a range of projects to grow employment and prosperity.

We’re working with the economic development agency Northland Inc. in Te Tai Tokerau and Waikato District Council, to cement the natural geographical and economic bonds between the regions. This includes supporting initiatives across tourism, Māori economic development, innovation and investment attraction.

We’re also working with a cross-sector steering group and our fellow economic development agencies for Wellington and Christchurch, to collaborate with central government about how to share information and collaborate around border management to help support local jobs and economic activity. 

If the pandemic has taught us anything, it’s that there is strength in numbers. We’re stronger when we work together, and it’s no different in the field of economic development.

Why do you think Covid-19 has had such a disproportionate economic effect on women?

Covid-19 has shone an even brighter spotlight on the entrenched gender-based career inequalities we’re all familiar with – from a women’s place in the labour market, the value of her work, the amount of unpaid work expected of her, and all within a society with many structural inequalities.

It’s fair to say women are bearing the brunt of the pandemic’s economic impacts predominantly due to the number in part-time work and service-based jobs across retail, tourism and hospitality.

It’s a marked change from previous recessions – the 1980’s financial markets crash and 2008’s GFC – where it was men who were harder hit in business sector roles. Now, frontline women in the service sector are most at risk and we’re anticipating this could get worse as businesses learn to get by with lower staffing levels.

For women able to work from home through Auckland’s recurring lockdowns, it’s likely they are juggling job expectations and unpaid work, perhaps reducing paid hours so they can care for children. Again, structural inequalities mean this may be a better financial option for a family.

We can say New Zealand is slowly improving at a leadership level. Pre-pandemic the number of women on the boards of publicly listed companies was growing. However, many women are still faced with the obstacle of the ‘bottom rung of the broken ladder’. 

What can and is being done to address these disparities? 

There is an awareness in government, boardroom and management about the economic disparities women face, particularly women of colour. We all need to keep raising and spreading this awareness as part of our challenge to the status quo. 

There’s overwhelming evidence of the positive impact women’s ideas and voices have in governance and leadership, and when women’s economic wellbeing and education are lifted – benefits for whanau, communities, businesses and countries. 

Groups like SUPERdiverse WOMEN, the Government Women’s Network, TechWomen, the Women’s Entrepreneur Network, Global Women and many others are working hard advocating, training and linking women, making them more visible and connecting them with opportunities.

From networks like these to targeted government and business programmes, there are a range of scholarships, internships, graduate and observer programmes, and we also see women seizing the chance to flourish and triumph in wider initiatives, like the amazing interns I met at the recent Tupu Toa Gala.

Co-working and innovation spaces are also important too, bringing startups and entrepreneurs together in a community, and here in Auckland many of those spaces are led by women, enabling others. Look at the work people like Manawa Udy is doing with Ngahere Communities at Grid Manukau and online with Konei; co-founder of Auckland’s Click Creative Tech Studios, Aleisha Staples; Imche Fourie working with start-ups at New Zealand’s home for deep tech, LevelTwo; and our own Eve Charles working with startups at GridAKL.

To what extent have returning Kiwis had a positive effect on the economic development of New Zealand during its Covid-19 recovery?

While it’s sad to see the lives of so many Kiwis around the world disrupted by Covid-19, it really is a tremendous opportunity for New Zealand to welcome them home. They bring with them so much talent, knowledge, experience and more importantly, a fresh perspective to complement the high-calibre talent already here.

Kea’s Welcome Home Survey, which surveyed 15,000 expats around the world, highlighted the once-in-a generation opportunity the pandemic brings – people looking to return and or having already returned at the height of their career, with a willingness to contribute to New Zealand’s future.

We’re thrilled the survey revealed 32 per cent of respondents intended to or had already returned to Auckland. It’s an honour to have these people choose Tāmaki Makaurau as their home, but with this comes a great responsibility for our region given the role it plays in the national economy.

We need to welcome them, provide a space for their work and their ideas, and listen and collaborate to help them achieve their goals, as their experience and perspective may hold the key to problems New Zealand needs to solve.

We’re seeing the top industries looking to return are technology and science, and the arts and creative industries – all sectors of strength and significant potential for our region. The arrival of expat Kiwis looking to grow these sectors presents a great opportunity for our people, helping create high value, high-skilled sustainable jobs.

In a post-Covid economy, what do you believe the opportunities are for New Zealand to grow in a more productive and sustainable way? 

In August we brought 200 Auckland business leaders together to explore how we live, work and do business in a Covid-19 world. One of most memorable discussions was an ethnically diverse panel of energetic women – all coincidentally wearing bright red – talking about health and social cohesion.

They hit on the recurring theme of the day – that this is an opportunity to reset the region for the future. While that includes building on our comparative advantages and seizing growth opportunities, it also includes addressing racial inequality and racism that underpins things like pay equity. And a key part of a reset will be working in partnership with iwi and honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi. 

The Māori economy here in New Zealand – indigenous economies internationally – and regenerative economic models offer us ways of doing things different, more sustainably and inclusively, as we respond to Covid-19, climate change and social inequality. Our Māori creatives, entrepreneurs and innovators also make an enormous and unique contribution to our economy and our position in the world.

For New Zealand, there is significant opportunity for our ‘weightless economy’, based on technology and intellectual property. In Auckland, our thriving screen and technology sectors make a strong foundation to build on, and the intersection of our creative industries and technology is a really exciting space, as is green or clean tech. 

What would your advice to a young Kiwi woman early in her career be?

Take your opportunities – and it may be simply doing the very best in your current role. Everything you do is a building block, adding new connections and experiences, which will become part of your story and your future opportunities.

To what extent do you believe building networks and global Kiwi connections is so important? 

Networks and global connections are so important as they are an essential ingredient in making great things happen. Most important is how people act and use their networks and connections – being collaborative, respectful and open to new ideas and views.

What are your hopes for 2021? 

Like 2020, this year is dominated by COVID-19. I’ve heard both our Prime Minister and President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde call it ‘the year of the vaccine’. My hope for 2021 is that vaccine rollout is swift and widespread so that we can get our economic recovery underway but most of all that we can resume reunion of families, and in- person business relationships. Because ultimately, it’s our core connections and networks that enrich our lives.

CONTRIBUTOR

Pam Ford

GM Economic Development

Auckland Unlimited

Kea member

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